Economy
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ACFTA at a Crossroads: Balancing Growth and Dependency in ASEAN-China Trade Relations
The strategic partnership between the United States and ASEAN has never fully recovered from the shock of the Trump administration’s 2016 turn away from multilateralism, erratic diplomacy, and rising protectionism. Years of unpredictable US policy have eroded trust, leaving ASEAN leaders doubtful about Washington’s long-term reliability. Into this vacuum steps…
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Reassessing Market Commitments: Foreign Firms Exit China Amid Mounting Political and Economic Uncertainty
Foreign direct investment (FDI) was a cornerstone of China’s rapid economic ascent over the past five decades, but recent years have seen a sharp decline. While sluggish post-COVID recovery is often cited as the primary cause, equally important are the Chinese government’s assertive domestic and foreign policies. Artificially subsidized local…
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Echoes of 2018: Understanding Trump’s Renewed Tariff Offensive on China
The hardened stance of President Trump’s second administration toward China—manifested in aggressive tariff threats, export controls, and trade investigations—closely echoes the US trade strategy of 2018–2020. Then, what began with duties on several billion dollars of imports swiftly escalated into an unprecedented tit‑for‑tat tariff war that rattled global markets, exposed…
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China and Industrial Policy (Part II): The Future of an Idea, Its Implications and Consequences
Written in conjunction with Ian Wan. You can read Part I here. Industrial policy has recently regained prominence in policymakers’ minds, and not in small part due to China. Whilst industrial policy has always been contentious in an era dominated by capitalist market economies rather than state planning economies, its…
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China and Industrial Policy (Part I): The History of an Idea, Its Rationale and Consequences
Written in conjunction with Paul Meyer. You can read Part II here. Industrial policy has recently regained prominence in policymakers’ minds, and not in small part due to China. Whilst industrial policy has always been contentious in an era dominated by capitalist market economies rather than state planning economies, its…
Sino-Southeast Initiative 